Friday, February 8, 2013

Market Update Week Feb 8th

It's been a pretty crazy week for the stock market as it continues to press at DOW 14,000. The sentiment is that the market is overbought and people are leery about buying here. 

Have we really hit the top for now? 

Is the market bound to sell off? 
The answer is most likely yes, we are due for a pullback, before we can start the ascent toward Dow 15,000. Some believe we could see Dow 12,000 before we see Dow 15,000. The question of whether the rally is over is on each investor's mind, both bulls and bears alike. 

While the economy is getting slightly better, many professionals believe earnings estimates are too high and will not be beat frequently this quarter. While I cannot predict if this rally is coming to an end or not, a correction will eventually occur. That's a fact. When the correction starts, it could happen over the course of a few weeks. Thus traders may want to put on some bearish positions, to protect or even continue to grow capital. Those who are bearish could consider selling stock, selling covered calls on their positions, shorting stocks, buying puts or investing in a volatility or bear fund. 

While each of these approaches has its respective benefits and risks, in today's newsletter, I want to highlight the 2 ETFs that could provide great short-term returns in the event of a market sell-off. They are my number 1 and number 2 picks TZA & FAZ.

FOR INTRA DAY TRADING ONLY - ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Fut ETF (UVXY): This is my favorite play when I expect short-term daily volatility spike. The investment fund seeks to replicate (net of expenses) twice the return of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures index for a single day. The index measures the movements of a combination of VIX futures and is designed to track changes in the expectation for one month in the future. On average, approximately 3.9 million units exchange hands daily. The fund has an expense ratio of 1.41%, currently trades at $11.04 and has a 52-week range of $10.10-$481.20. This wide range has been a result of multiple reverse stock splits conducted by the fund's managers.






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